Bank loan growth was still worried
according to media reports, banks and real estate companies in the first half of this year "looks away from God", again wild guesses of Community Bank real estate credit tightening, 16 listed banks total loan involved amounting to 12.88 trillion yuan, involving housing loans reached 1.09 trillion yuan, including mortgage growth of more than 800 billion yuan. Sharp growth in mortgages, in the current economic slowdown, the growth pressure situations, are still worried, is a problem worthy of consideration. Objective analysis and timely revision of the real estate credit policy is particularly urgent and important.
on purchase people for, housing mortgage loan growth, can for purchase just needed family solution temporary funds difficult, let no room family dream into really, achieved has home who has its room, but while also can see, mortgage loan growth must brings adverse social consequences: a is let just needed family to future for decades years income for high cost, effect other life spending, its life happiness index imagined. Second, due to the growth in mortgage lending, as more people pour into big cities provide a "green channel", increasing the difficulty of control of urban population growth, big city living environment more embarrassing burdens.
loan growth at the freezing point of the real estate industry, is seasonable, solve the pressing need, make some money on the verge chain crisis, room dodged, to avoid a sharp decline in the real estate industry and lead to a crash "hard landing". Real estate recovery, also bring downstream industries such as steel, cement and other industries, to resolve the overcapacity crisis also played a role. But the real estate recovery model is not only difficult to promote economic growth with sustainability and increase the difficulty of adjusting China's economic structure and industrial structure of China's economy in the short term it's hard to get effective change. Also, due to the temporary stimulus-related industries of real estate, may once again cover up the compression and elimination of excess capacity "three high" the urgency of enterprise, facing greater difficulties adjusting the industrial structure.
on entity economic for, real estate industry recovery can indirect for promoted entity enterprise development provides must opportunities, but while it also will let entity economic produced illusion: key when, Government on room enterprises also is to shots help, especially in room enterprises suffered funds difficult Shi, Government more is take various rescue measures, Bank in credit policy Shang are implementation has has tilt of support strategy, which more firm levels Government on real estate industry of rely on, real estate industry will became never decline of industry, entity economic will further lost "Industry and rejuvenating the" ideas and interests, further exacerbating the real economy "from real to imaginary". In any case, the sustainable and healthy development of the real economy would be a fatal blow, this is a worrying issue.
for local governments, land and a reliable source of revenue, like the "grasping at straws", can temporarily alleviate financial pressures, especially some of the huge debts of local governments and debt risks in the future could be pushed, avoiding risk outbreak can be said to save the Government from "water". But from long-term see, on development entity economic adverse, local Government still will put caught economic development of main energy put in expanded sold to and increased land revenue Shang, on for entity economic out responsibility sex not strong, and interest sex not thick; even on some relates central support entity economic development of policy measures also difficult timely implement implementation, entity economic development environment still difficult improved, this on revitalization China entity economic not a good.
for the banks, continue to increase the room business loan, payment has saved some stress and debt crisis, housing funds, "broken chain" fate, ensures that housing prices are not after maturity of the loan defaults, prevent significant increases in bad debts. Meanwhile, banks can obtain higher profits from the credit growth, for the banks, this seems to be a general. But in the long run, banks tired loans on real estate enterprises will be more and more poorly, is tantamount to drinking poison, and other lending in the real economy will be reduced, it is difficult to ease the financing situation in the real economy. Was particularly serious, banking on real estate loans continue to maintain high growth, will also attract other funds of the society in real estate, real estate industry "heat up" so that financial risks are increasing.
to this end, the banking sector to grasp the good one, avoiding real estate credit "one size fits all" killed all real estate loans; and avoid overkill, the real estate industry expanded excessively, preventing real estate and bubbles. Meanwhile, to maintain rational behavior, not to guard against bad loans to the real estate industry and their profits too much lending, injected loan meets real estate companies working to prevent real estate industry high financial leverage. Especially on individual mortgage loans have a good sense of, the Government and the financial sector has a responsibility to promote mortgage to buyers right, suggesting buyers lose; prevent agitation blind mortgage buyers, leading to excessive debt.