August new credit or up to 700 billion overall cut down possibility of small
on September 8, the General Administration of Customs announced August trade data, which exports $ 208.4 billion, an increase of 9.4%, imported US $ 158.629 billion, down 2.4%, the trade surplus expanded to us $ 49.836 billion.
August imports fell short of expectations, market data on exports decline widely interpreted as domestic demand is not strong. After the July after the unexpected drop in the credit data, banks "hoarding" mood spread, calls for interest rate cuts, the market drop, easing of sound reproduction.
However, Chief Li Zhiqiang, an analyst at Minsheng Bank's financial markets Department, told the China business (micro-blog) journal, market expectations of fantasy, interfere with the judgment of the economic situation. Market expectations of policy and the actual policy there is any deviation, overall easing of the policy should not be significant in the future.
foreign exchange is expected to sustain
in June this year, foreign exchange growth, increased slightly in July.
"August should also continue to rise, base money situation will be eased. "Guosen securities chief macroeconomic researcher Zhong Zhengsheng told the newspaper reporters," this month's trade surplus higher, foreign exchange should be continued on an upturn, according to seasonal estimates could climb even higher in the third quarter. Every year the foreign exchange data like this. Mainly because of Western holiday consumption. "
customs figures show that in August, China's imports and exports totalling US $ 367.094 billion, an increase of 4%. Among them, the exported 208.465 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.4% trade surplus of 49.836 billion US dollars, a record.
analysis on Zhong Zhengsheng told reporters, declining trade surplus even higher foreign exchange is expected to sustain. In July, an all-time high, based on the August trade surplus rose again to $ 49.8 billion. In August, the exchange rate showed a significant appreciation of the Yuan, trade surplus expansion, foreign "hot money" inflows, as well as private sector meeting will of marginal decrease of RMB exchange rate a strong support. Further monetary easing in Europe and the dollar index stable at periodic highs, will push up the Renminbi exchange rate in the future. Under strong upward pressure on the renminbi is expected, the Central Bank is difficult to completely exit the normal intervention, foreign exchange is still a mild rebound.
Li Zhiqiang said, foreign exchange and foreign trade surplus to some extent, but foreign exchange is likely to at least be equally influenced by the cross-border movement of capital, and the cross-border movement of capital is more on the future of China's economy is expected, under the control of cross-border capital flows to Agency expectations for China's future economic impact.
August new lending 700 billion yuan or
the August credit data ready when recalling the July credit data, 385.2 billion yuan of new Yuan loans, 314.5 billion yuan in less per cent, less 694.8 billion yuan in per cent in 2010, monthly new loans since the absolute lowest amount.
Zhong Zhengsheng said in July, sharp contraction of credit data, banks (joint-stock banks in particular) supply fluctuation is the main reason. This is because the current financing needs is not strong, but aren't likely to suddenly within one month to the next level. Regulatory regulatory capacity on the supply side, much more than demand-side.
how market expectations for the August credit?
"the August data 700 billion yuan of credit no problem. "Zhong Zhengsheng told reporters at around 700 billion yuan of new credit is expected in August. If the year 10 trillion yuan of new credit goals, which is the average of the remaining months of this year put on the scale. Meanwhile, off-balance sheet financing situation of helplessness may also change, amount of new financing is expected in August at about 1.1 trillion yuan. Credit climbed, off-balance sheet financing in the table recovery, foreign exchange is not the weak backdrop, is expected in August M2 growth remained at 13.5% per cent level.
"by August new Yuan (domestic and foreign) loan of about 750 billion yuan, the chain added about 365 billion yuan, compared with increases of about 39 billion yuan, but the outstanding growth of the month 13.3%, still will be slightly lower than last month. "Lian ping, Chief Economist of Bank of communications, told the newspaper reporters.
Muneyoshi, Deputy Director of the Institute of international finance, Bank of China has also assured reporters predicted: "this August than in July, and July was the lowest for a month. August to reach 500 billion yuan should be no problem. Size about 10 trillion yuan for the year, about 6 trillion yuan in the first half, second half of 4 trillion can be completed. "
overall interest rate cut less likely
in recent days, part of the people's bank branch to increase agriculture-supporting loans of 20 billion yuan, and guide financial institutions to expand agriculture-related credit, strengthening the management of agricultural loans, to help reduce" three agricultural "funding costs, the market will be interpreted as directional cut.
"policy, I'm afraid not as optimistic as market expectations. Will not fully drop, full cut. "Li believes that directional cuts actually agricultural loans, or so-called decline in lending rates the County; County agriculture-related loans from financial institutions to further easing in interest rates. Is a contraction in the real economy now slowing trend from Community financing, it has been strong enough, active cooling in the real economy, "domestic real economy is not high, import data as reference indicators of domestic demand, domestic demand is not strong. "
" decision-making still sound economic growth to the bottom line of tolerance, the more close to the bottom line, achieve the goal of adjusting the structure, promoting economic restructuring. "Li Zhiqiang said, policymakers emphasize new normal, pay more attention to the quality of economic growth. As long as employment indicators deteriorated significantly, total will not take growth measure, more quality.
"the overall drop, rate cuts unlikely at present. "Zhong Zhengsheng told the newspaper predicted that monetary policy in the second half of the tone, in managing liquidity under master valve control, monetary policy too loose quantity may not be further initiatives but will try to improve some of the structural instruments of monetary policy, trying to guide funding costs down. Loans, PSL, directional basis must make up for part of the money gap reduction tool, there is no need of overall drop.